Statistical Analysis of the Effectiveness of Seawalls and Coastal Forests in Mitigating Tsunami Impacts in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures

The Pacific coast of the Tohoku region of Japan experiences repeated tsunamis, with the most recent events having occurred in 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011. These events have caused large loss of life and damage throughout the coastal region. There is uncertainty about the degree to which seawalls reduce deaths and building damage during tsunamis in Japan. On the one hand they provide physical protection against tsunamis as long as they are not overtopped and do not fail. On the other hand, the presence of a seawall may induce a false sense of security, encouraging additional development behind the seawall and reducing evacuation rates during an event. We analyze municipality-level and sub-municipality-level data on the impacts of the 1896, 1933, 1960, and 2011 tsunamis, finding that seawalls larger than 5 m in height generally have served a protective role in these past events, reducing both death rates and the damage rates of residential buildings. However, seawalls smaller than 5 m in height appear to have encouraged development in vulnerable areas and exacerbated damage. We also find that the extent of flooding is a critical factor in estimating both death rates and building damage rates, suggesting that additional measures, such as multiple lines of defense and elevating topography, may have significant benefits in reducing the impacts of tsunamis. Moreover, the area of coastal forests was found to be inversely related to death and destruction rates, indicating that forests either mitigated the impacts of these tsunamis, or displaced development that would otherwise have been damaged

Relative magnitude of infragravity waves at coastal dikes with shallow foreshores : a prediction tool

Despite the widely recognized role of infragravity (IG) waves in many often-hazardous nearshore processes, spectral wave models, which exclude IG-wave dynamics, are often used in the design and assessment of coastal dikes. Consequently, the safety of these structures in environments where IG waves dominate remains uncertain. Here, we combine physical and numerical modeling to: (1) assess the influence of various offshore, foreshore, and dike slope conditions on the dominance of IG waves over those at sea and swell (SS) frequencies; and (2) develop a predictive model for the relative magnitude of IG waves, defined as the ratio of the IG-to-SS-wave height at the dike toe. Findings show that higher, directionally narrow-banded incident waves; shallower water depths; milder foreshore slopes; reduced vegetated cover; and milder dike slopes promote IG-wave dominance. In addition, the empirical model derived, which captures the combined effect of the varied environmental parameters, allows practitioners to quickly estimate the significance of IG waves at the coast, and may also be combined with spectral wave models to extend their applicability to areas where IG waves contribute significantly

Conditional density plots for death and damage rates versus maximum seawall heights.

<p>Here the response variables are binary, representing whether death and damage rates are above or below their median values. For a given seawall height, a greater proportion of red means lower death or damage rates, while a greater proportion of gray means higher death or damage rates.</p

Out-of-sample predictive accuracy across different models.

<p>Out-of-sample predictive accuracy across different models.</p

Ranges of percentage destruction and death rates in Miyagi and Iwate Prefectures.

<p>Ranges of percentage destruction and death rates in Miyagi and Iwate Prefectures.</p

Partial dependence plots of maximum tsunami height, coastal forest area, and flooded areas with mean destruction rate.

<p>The red lines represent bootstrapped confidence intervals around model estimates.</p